Wildland Fire Outlook
by John Weckerle
Arlene Perea of the Mountainair Ranger District has sent us the National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook from the National Interagency Fire Predictive Services. For April, normal significant fire potential is expected across the Southwest, although the report acknowledges that “confidence” is not high, especially in the second half of the month. The report states: “Above normal significant fire potential is expected to gradually expand northwestward to encompass the western half of the Area. The most likely condition during this period is continued moisture intrusions across the eastern third of the region with periodic surges westward across New Mexico and into Arizona, increasing the possibly of lightning ignitions. There is a reasonable amount of confidence that the weather pattern will not be as conducive to large-scale, wind-driven fire events as the fine fuels available in the eastern half to two thirds of the Area are not as widespread or as continuous as a year ago.” The report further indicates that much of the uncertainty revolves around the “small possibility of a weak El Niño developing by early summer,” which would certainly be welcome to those of us itching to garden. We’ll note that the report was issued before yesterday’s drenching, so we’ll be interested to see how things play out.
For more information, see the report.